Most day traders, especially heavy day traders, lose money trading. Why do investors engage in such a wealth reducing activity?

Question: 

There are more than 100 million people in the world engaging in trading everyday.
If trading do not work, why would there be so many people engaging in this activities everyday over long period of time?

WHY? I am puzzled too.


Most day traders, especially heavy day traders, lose money trading. 
Why do investors engage in such a wealth reducing activity?

1. One possibility is that investors simply find day trading entertaining.
- Undoubtedly some investors do find day trading entertaining, but can entertainment account for the extent of day trading that we observe? 
- Do day traders knowingly and willingly accept such large expected losses for fun? 
- For all but the wealthiest investors, this would be a very expensive form of entertainment indeed.


2. Another reason why day trading might entice investors would be if it provided an appealing distribution of returns. 
- People often display an attraction to highly skewed investments, such as lotteries, that have negative expected returns but a small probability of a large payoff. 
- However, the day trading profits that we document are similar in magnitude to, and far less prevalent than, losses. 
- Unlike lottery winners, day traders must succeed on repeated gambles in order to achieve overall success. 
- Such repeated gambles do not tend to generate highly skewed distributions.


3. A final potential explanation for the prevalence of day trading is that most day traders are overconfident about their own chances of success. 
- Several papers (e.g., Odean (1998, 1999), Barber and Odean (2000, 2001)) argue that overconfidence causes investors to trade more than is in their own best interest. 
- Overconfident day traders may simply be bearing losses that they did not anticipate. 
- While day traders undoubtedly realize that other day traders lose money, stories of successful day traders may circulate in non-representative proportions, thus giving the impression that success is more frequent that it is. 
- Heavy day traders, who earn gross profits but net losses, may not fully consider trading costs when assessing their own ability. 
- And, individual day traders may believe themselves more likely to succeed than the average day trader. 
- We are unable to explicitly test whether day traders are motivated by overconfidence rather than the desire for entertainment. 
- Our opinion is that the average losses incurred by day traders are more than most would willingly accept as the cost of entertainment and that, by and large, day traders must hold unrealistic beliefs about their chances of success.

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The Growth Stocks of Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch 

From 1977 through his retirement in 1990, Peter Lynch steered the Fidelity Magellan Fund to a total return of 2,510%, or five times the approximate 500% return of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. In his 1989 book One Up on Wall Street, Lynch described a variety of strategies that individual investors can use to duplicate his success. These strategies divide attractive stocks into different categories, each characterized by different criteria. Among those most easy to identify using quantitative research are fast growers, slow growers and stalwarts, with special criteria applied to cyclical and financial stocks. (The latter, for example, should have strong equity-to-assets ratios as a measure of financial solvency.) 

Peter Lynch's Company Categories: 

Fast Growers 

These companies have little debt, are growing earnings at 20% to 50% a year, and have a stock price-to-earnings ratio below the company's earnings growth rate.

Investing in these types of stocks makes sense for investors who want to findsolidly financed, fast-growing companies at reasonable prices. 

Slow Growers 

Here Lynch is looking for companies with high dividend payouts, since dividends are the main reason for investing in slow-growth companies.

Among other things, he also requires that such companies have sales in excess of $1 billion, sales that generally are growing faster than inventories, a low yield-adjusted price/earnings-to-growth ratio, and a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio.

Investing in these types of stocks makes sense for income-oriented investors. 

Stalwarts 

Stalwarts have only moderate earnings growth but hold the potential for 30%-to-50% stock price gains over a two-year period if they can be purchased at attractive prices. 

Characteristics include positive earnings; a debt to equity ratio of .33 or less;sales rates that generally are increasing in line with, or ahead of, inventories;and a low yield-adjusted price/earnings-to-growth ratio. 

Investing in these types of stocks makes sense for investors who aren't willing to pay up for high-growth companies but still want the chance to enjoy significant capital gains.

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Banks lead the equity sector flows

Banks and financials stocks have had a pretty good year. The Thomson Reuters Global Financials index is up by more than 20% in the last 12 months, and although the detritus of the financial crisis still offers the occasional sting, investors are starting to see brighter spots for the industry.

That confidence is increasingly obvious in the fund flows.

Our corporate cousins at Lipper track more than 7,000 mutual funds and ETFs which are dedicated to specific industry sectors. Dig a little into the data in this subset of funds, and you start to get a pretty good picture of where the biggest bets have been placed.

Just shy of 500 of these funds are focused entirely on banks & financials. Together they hold more than $46 billion in assets.

Last month, they suffered a total net outflow of just about $1 billion, but on a one-year view, 10 months of net inflows have driven an injection of over $10 billion. It amounts to a concerted bet on the sector, particularly in the U.S. where the bulk of assets are held, with the inflows equating to 22% of the latest published assets under management. You can see the evolution over the year in the chart below; cumulative gains or losses over the 12 months are shown in the blue area; monthly flows are shown by the red bars.

The sector was by far the most popular, both in absolute terms and relative to the assets held.

Cyclical consumer goods and services funds (chart below) managed a net inflow equivalent to about 18 % of their latest published assets over the 12 months, while biotech funds andpharma/healthcare funds were at 15% and 10% respectively. Pharma/healthcare was in second spot in absolute terms, with a 12 month net inflow of $7.8 billion, while global real estate (chart below) was third with $5.6 billion.

Worth noting too that the global real estate sector was the most consistent over the year, pulling in overall net inflows in 11 out of the 12 months, according to Lipper’s estimates.

Get in touch with me directly at joel.dimmock@thomsonreuters.com or on Twitter if you’re interested in seeing the full data.

Outside the big ticket numbers, there’s a tale to tell among the information technology funds.

Over 12 months, they have only managed net inflows equivalent to 1.6 % of assets – well below the average for all 20 sectors, according to the Lipper estimates, but the last four months have been marked by a resurgence. The funds posted overall net inflows of more than $1.2 billion in both May and July – the biggest monthly results since the beginning of 2011 and a turnaround which hauled the sector back into the black for the year. Check out the chart below.

Of course, equities are enjoying a long summer and a rising tide lifts all boats – or at least it tries to. Some sectors are still under water, and telecoms services equity funds take the wooden spoon, posting net outflows over the 12 months equal to 13% of assets and suffering 10 down months in the process.

And finally, it will surprise no one that gold and precious metals equity funds have seen one of the sharpest reversals, but it’s noticeable that it pivoted on a $1.4 billion net outflow in January as investors, pretty successfully it seems, anticipated an about 20% fall in the gold price since then.

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US investors prop up emerging equity flows

U.S. mutual fund investors are ploughing on with bets on emerging market equities, according to the latest net flows numbers from our corporate cousins at fund research firm Lipper. Has no one told them there’s supposed to be a massive sell-off?

August was the 30th straight month the sector has seen net inflows, and the 9th straight month of net inflows above $1 billion. Sure, there’s a downward trend from the February peak, but the resilience of demand is notable given doom-laden headlines about how EM markets will fareonce the Fed feels its generosity is no longer required.

Of course, the popular image of mutual fund investors is as a perennial lagging indicator for allocations trends, and the stage may be being set for a sharp turnaround this month. However, U.S. investors have already been offloading their bets on emerging debt, with funds in the sector seeing net outflows of $2.6 billion, or 7.5% of total assets, in the three months to end-August.

It may be that this is part of a trend towards international diversification in the U.S., with investors taking a longer view and a more sanguine approach to risk. But they’ll need strong stomachs. Three-month performance at those U.S.-domiciled EM equity funds is at -7.7% (see chart below), while three-month net inflows are at more than $4.5 billion. Juxtapose that with the global EM equity sector over the same period, where  average fund performance is at -8.2% and net outflows are a chunky $7.8 billion. In short, investors elsewhere are pulling cash out of emerging equity funds but U.S. fund buyers seem to be going the other way.

Chad Cleaver and Howard Schwab, emerging markets fund managers at U.S. fund firm Driehaus Capital, reckon the data simply reflects  some clear incentives for American investors to stick with EM. They told us:

Firstly, profits from the US equity market can be redistributed into cheaper/lesser performing asset classes. Secondly, US investors/institutions have an unreasonably high percent of money in bonds. A reallocation of bonds assets, even in a small part, can create flows for emerging market equities.

Lastly, US investors are reasonably more positive/confident in global growth… and hence identify the cyclicality of emerging markets as an eventual beneficiary of this phenomenon.

They also highlight that lure of real diversification as we move away (investors hope!) from a risk-on, risk-off world.

While the composition of emerging markets may change… the overall opportunity within emerging markets remains highly differentiated from the economic/company fundamentals of more developed countries.

It may also be instructive that many of the U.S. mutual funds showing the strongest inflows are actually targeted at institutions. As developing nations’ stock markets are hammered by fears over the impact of Fed tapering, so major investors with emerging markets allocations targets to maintain will be engaged in a race to top up their holdings.

With this in mind, it’s useful to note that thanks to tumbling markets the total assets of the U.S.-based EM equity funds which have published August data have still fallen month-on-month, despite the net inflows. This cohort of funds have seen total AuM fall from $115 billion at end-July, to $113 billion at end-August, proving that even diversification, growth bets and allocation technicalities can’t keep a good downturn down.

(NOTE: Not all funds have published data for August as yet. The data from U.S. funds is based on about 150 funds out of 240 in total. The funds used represent about two thirds of the assets held across the whole sector. The Global EM funds data is drawn from about 800 funds vs a total sector made up of about 1,100 funds)

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100-Year Flood /= 100-Day Flood

Investors experienced a 100-year flood in 2008-2009 and now it seems a broad array of media outlets endlessly bombards us with new, impending 100-day floods that are expected to drown investment portfolios and wash the economy into recession. The -3% drop in the S&P 500 index during August is symptomatic of investor nervousness.

This is nothing new. The media has been reporting scary forecasts every day over the last four years. Yesterday, we heard about the flash crash, Dubai, debt ceiling debate, Greece, Cyprus, eurozone demise, presidential election uncertainty, fiscal cliff, Iranian nuclear threats, North Korean provocations, and other potentially deadly floods.

Today, the worrisome flood forecasts include Syria, bond tapering, rising interest rates, debt ceiling part II, Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve successor, sequestration part II, Egypt, mid-term Congressional elections, and other natural and artificial disasters.

Despite a tsunami of unrelenting worries, the fact remains that corporate profits are at record levels (see chart below), corporations are holding record levels of cash, and even with a weak performance by stocks in August, the market is still up +15% this year, only off all-time record highs.

Source: Calafia Beach Pundit

Notwithstanding the recent record levels, stock ownership is at 15-year lows (see Markets Soar and Investors Snore) and skepticism still reigns supreme. By the time the coast is clear, and confidence returns, the opportunities will be vastly diminished. For the overwhelming majority of Baby Boomers and younger retirees, the investing game will remain challenging.

Wear a Raincoat & Ignore Data

Rather than succumbing to fears arising from volatile data and gloomy predictions, it is better to grab an investment raincoat and ignore the data. Sticking to your long-term investment plan is paramount. Legendary investor Sir John Templeton encapsulated the relationship of emotions and stock prices perfectly when he stated, “Bull markets are born on pessimism and they grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Fellow investor extraordinaire Peter Lynch highlighted the irrelevance of tracking macroeconomic data by noting, “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”

When describing investment success, Lynch went on to say, “Whatever method you use to pick stocks or stock mutual funds, your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed.”

We’ve all survived the 100-year flood of 2008-09 with our lives, but confidence has been beaten down with the subsequent list of scary, misplaced forecasted floods over the last four years. Patient, long-term investors have been handsomely rewarded, with approximately +150% returns in stocks from the lows, but ominous economic predictions will persist. While the next 100-year flood probably won’t be here for another generation, disastrous forecasts will continue. As I’ve pointed out earlier, there is no shortage of concerns. There is always something horrible going on in this world somewhere and there will always be something to worry about. Who knows, tomorrow could bring an earthquake, terrorist attack, Russian currency crisis, Iranian regime change, Zimbabwean hyperinflation, or some other unforeseen concern.

There will be plenty of economic thunderstorms and showers ahead, but hiding in inflation eroding cash, or attempting to time the market is a recipe for financial disaster. Volatility is here to stay, so that’s why it’s so important to have a disciplined investment plan in place. Creating a globally diversified portfolio, across numerous asset classes, to smoothen volatility in a manner that meets your time horizon and risk tolerance is critical. Do yourself a favor and have your grandchildren (not you) worry about the next 100-year flood…that way you can ignore the multitude of phantom, 100-day floods.

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Munger's Daily Journal: Decisive Shift into Stocks

Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) has had, to say the very least, substantial success with its investments in recent years.

Daily Journal is a publisher based in Los Angeles that has been shifting its excess cash into stocks picked by Charlie Munger and J.P. Guerin.

Charlie Munger is the non-executive chairman of Daily Journal and, of course, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. While better known for serving as Warren Buffett's business partner, he's also been more quietly serving as the chairman and a director at Daily Journal since 1977.

J.P. Guerin is the vice-chairman of Daily Journal.

Well, they've had so much success in recent years that, back in February of 2013, the SEC formally asked why Daily Journal shouldn't be considered an investment company (as defined in theInvestment Company Act of 1940).

Here's the Daily Journal's rather lengthy response.

Among other things, the SEC noted the high percentage of Daily Journal's total assets that are now marketable securities. This is important for the following reason as explained in Daily Journal's response: "...the Investment Company Act (the 'Act') defines an investment company as an issuer (i) 'engaged … in the business of investing, reinvesting, owning, holding, or trading in securities' and (ii) whose assets are at least 40% investment securities."

They go on to further explain that "the Act exempts from this definition any issuer 'primarily engaged, directly or through a wholly-owned subsidiary or subsidiaries, in a business or businesses other than that of investing, reinvesting, owning, holding, or trading in securities.'" 

I found this part of their response, where they explain why in their view the above noted exemption applies, of particular interest:

"...Daily Journal is not just 'primarily' engaged in businesses other than investing - it is entirely engaged in other businesses. The Company and its two wholly-owned subsidiaries have nearly 275 employees and contractors, all of whom are engaged either in the publication of newspapers and magazines or the development and licensing of case management software. 

There is no question that Daily Journal's marketable securities currently exceed 40% of its total assets. This is due to the wise decision of the Board of Directors in 2009 to begin shifting the Company's cash and cash equivalents into marketable securities that have appreciated significantly. The Board recognized that this decision would be contrary to the conventional (but questionable) notion that the least risky way to preserve corporate capital for the long-term benefit of stockholders is to invest it in government bonds at interest rates approximating zero, notwithstanding rising inflation. 

That the Company even had excess cash to invest is due primarily to the confluence of a unique aspect of its publishing business and the country's largest financial crisis in more than 70 years. The Company's newspapers are 'adjudicated', which means they are eligible to publish legal notices, including notices of residential foreclosure sales that are required by California and Arizona law to be published by the foreclosure trustee in an adjudicated newspaper. The Company aggressively competes for the opportunity to publish trustee foreclosure notices, and there were lots and lots of them to be published in California and Arizona beginning in 2006. 

So, while the 'Great Recession' ironically benefitted Daily Journal, the Board knew that it needed to plan for the Company's post-recession operations. To do that, the Company needed to (1) hedge a very difficult environment for newspapers generally, (2) provide for an asset base from which to pursue attractive acquisition opportunities, and (3) establish a minimum net worth that would enable it to bid on significant government software contracts that the Company had been too small to qualify for in the past. Accordingly, the Board decided to purchase three securities selected by Charles Munger, the Company's non-executive chairman, and J.P. Guerin, the Company's vice-chairman. Those investments were quite successful, and the Company now holds positions in six securities." 

In July of 2013, the SEC said they had completed their review while making it clear future actions could still be taken.

Consider that, at the end of 2004, Daily Journal had net cash and investments (at that time primarily U.S. Treasury Bills) of $ 11.26 million. After subtracting notes payable of $ 4.55 million, net cash and investments was ~ $ 6.71 million.*

As of the most recent quarter -- nearly but not quite 10 years later -- Daily Journal had cash and investments (now, primarily made up of the six stocks) of $ 134.7 million. After subtracting $ 14.0 million in margin borrowing net cash and investments was ~$ 120.7 million.**

So I'd say they've put their capital (including free cash flow over that time) to rather wise use over the past decade or so.

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What are the long-term prospects for Tesco Plc (LON: TSCO)?

I'm always searching for shares that can help ordinary investors like you make money from the stock market.

Right now I am trawling through the FTSE 100 and giving my verdict on every member of the blue-chip index.

I hope to pinpoint the very best buying opportunities in today's uncertain market, as well as highlight those shares I feel you should hold... and those I feel you should sell!

I'm assessing every share on five different measures. Here's what I'm looking for in each company:

1. Financial strength: low levels of debt and other liabilities;

2. Profitability: consistent earnings and high profit margins; 

3. Management: competent executives creating shareholder value;

4. Long-term prospects: a solid competitive position and respectable growth prospects, and;

5. Valuation: an under-rated share price.

A LOOK AT TESCO

Today I'm evaluating Tesco (LSE: TSCO) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY.US)], a British multinational retailer, which currently trades at 363p. Here are my thoughts:

1. Financial strength: Tesco is in solid financial position.  Net debt/operating cash flow is less than 2 times; net gearing is 50%; interest cover is an adequate 7.5 times; and free cash flow has averaged nearly £2bn per year over the last 3 years.

2. Profitability: Tesco has delivered outstanding growth for nearly two decades. However, with the continuing weakness in Europe and facing stiff competition at home, the company has struggled of late. In the last fiscal year, underlying profit before tax declined by 15% while underlying earnings per share fell by 14%. Forced to compete in price, the company's margins have contracted from to 3.4% from 5.6% the previous year.

Also, international trading profit declined by 22%, due to the impact of regulatory changes in South Korea and impairment of businesses in Turkey, Poland and the Czech Republic.

3. Management: I believe the company's new direction under Philip Clarke, which focuses on developing its "multichannel" footprint, strengthening its core UK business, and adopting a more prudent international growth strategy,  places the company in a better position moving forward.    

4. Long-term prospects: Tesco has fallen out of favour with investors recently after a rough 18 months where it was rocked by the horsemeat scandal, several quarters of declining market share and like-for-like sales, and write-offs of its Fresh and Easy US business and several UK properties of more than £1bn  and £804m, respectively.

However, despite the grim outlook, I believe Tesco's competitive position remains solid. It is still the largest UK grocer with a market share of 30% --almost doubling that of its closest rival Wal-Mart's ASDA. It also owns the UK's widest store network with around 3,000 stores and the world's largest and most profitable online supermarket, which reached a record-high revenue of over £3bn last year. In addition, it is the number one or two retailer for general merchandise in 8 out of 9 of its international markets.

Furthermore, to adapt to the rapidly changing retail environment, the company has announced new strategic objectives which include: a shift from traditional large-store formats to building its "multichannel" retail capabilities such as convenience and online retailing; focusing on its core UK operations to maintain its leading position -- the company has invested around £1bn to overhaul its superstores; and adopting a more disciplined approach to international expansion, concentrating only on markets that could deliver strong investment returns. 

5. Valuation: With a market cap of £30bn, Tesco trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 -slightly below its 10-year median P/E of 13 and the industry average of 12-- and a prospective dividend yield of 4%, twice covered.

My verdict on Tesco

Although recent results have been disappointing and with competition in the UK likely to remain competitive, I think the company still owns a distinct advantage with its scale and size. Also, its profitable international business --29% of the company's profits come from outside the UK--  and established online presence could be a source of future growth opportunities.

Moreover, the company intends to tighten capital spending during the next few years --around 3.5% to 4% of revenue-- which will add to its already strong cash flow. What's more, shares are trading at an undemanding P/E of 12, a discount compared to its peers Wal-Mart andCarreouflour.        

So overall, I believe Tesco at 363p looks like a buy.

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