Low Oil Price Providing a $1.3 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus

You cannot just be focused on one side of the equation. Yes, lower oil prices may affect the revenues of oil exporting nations. It may even be a reflection of the oversupplu, maybe brought on by rogue nations milking oil for funds for war and terrorism. It could also be a strategy by OPEC to decapitate shale oil production ventures which needs oil to be safely way above $80 to make it feasible.

Whatever it is, lower oil prices will also mean savings for almost all nations, and in actual fact may go a long way to boosting demand and improve savings for reallocation of resources t

o other areas of the global economy. The report below from Bloomberg pegged stimulus at $1.1 trillion, now it should be $1.3 trillion. Thats a whole lot of QE in a different form and manner. Not all news is bad, the pendulum may swing but there is always a counter balance.

The lowest oil price in four years will provide stimulus of as much as $1.1 trillion to global economies by lowering the cost of fuels and other commodities, according to Citigroup Inc.

Brent, the world’s most active crude contract, closed at $83.78 a barrel inLondon yesterday. That’s more than 20 percent below its average for the past three years, amounting to savings of about $1.8 billion a day based on current output, Citigroup estimates. Savings will climb to $1.1 trillion annually as the slide cuts costs of other commodities, leaving consumers and companies with extra cash to spend and bolstering growth, according to Ed Morse, the bank’s head of global commodities research in New York.

Crude prices are plunging amid signs that OPEC, supplier of 40 percent of the world’s oil, won’t act to eliminate a surplus as global growth slows. Combined supplies from the U.S. and Canadarose last year to the highest since at least 1965 as producers tapped stores locked in shale-rock formations and oil sands. The global economy will rebound next year, with growth quickening to 2.98 percent, the fastest since 2010, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

“A reduction in oil prices also results in a reduction in prices across commodities, starting with natural gas, but also including copper, steel, and agriculture,” Morse said yesterday in an e-mailed response to questions. “All commodities are energy intensive to one degree or another.”