Realignment in Global Currencies Caused Global Equities to Pause

The worst week for global equities in almost two months finished on a positive note as optimism in the economy’s strength helped counter a procession of concerns from geopolitics to valuations and interest rates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.4 percent for the week, paring declines on the final day with a 0.9 percent rally. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 2 percent for the five days, the most since Aug. 1. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies decreased 2.4 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbled 2.8 percent, heading toward its worst month since January. 

We have to remember that most equity markets are near or at their all time highs. What is different is that I DO NOT see any of these so called all time high markets experiencing crowd madness, euphoria driven rallies, blinkered decision making ... every single market, even at or near their all time highs have been relatively subdued.

That is the crux of the current rally. Is it a liquidity driven rally? Well any bull run has to be driven by cheap money. The only thing is that not many people want to gear up or take advantage of low interest rates to leverage up to participate in the markets. However, many corporations and funds have been more than willing to gear up. Many institutional funds are willing to look for better returns. Hence much of the INDEXED STOCKS highs are due to this, an accumulation by institutional funds ... hence you do not feel the euphoria so much. 

The bulk of the activity has been in small caps, look at any market for the past 2 years. There certainly has been a flattening of many major property markets, not correction, but flattening out. We can surmise that a substantial amount of that liquidity may have trickled into equity markets, esp the smaller caps play.

However most equity markets traded sideways for the past week or so, MAINLY as there is an adjustment or realignment process going on in the global currencies arena. It appears there are some main conclusions reached by the majority:
a) Fed will raise interest rates very soon
b) resource led currencies will not get any help from China demand
c) Japan's reflationary tactics gaining traction
d) US recovery more solid and is diverging from EU

Equities fell early in the week as stronger economic data fueled concern the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. The issue took a back seat on the final day as the S&P 500 rebounded from the biggest one-day decline since July on a report showing U.S. gross domestic product expanded in the second quarter at the fastest rate since 2011.

Interest Rates

Investors are analyzing reports to assess whether growth is strong enough to withstand higher rates. The S&P 500 reached a record on Sept. 18 after the Fed maintained a commitment to keep interest rates near zero for a considerable time after completing asset purchases. The Fed also said that the timing could move forward if data continues to exceed expectations.

Interest-rate concerns boosted the dollar, sending the greenback to a four-year high and its sixth straight week of gains. Its rally sent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to a third week of losses. The gauge has tumbled 5.8 percent in September.

Reports for the week showed the U.S. economy rose at a 4.6 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from an August estimate of 4.2 percent. New-home sales surged to the highest level in more than six years, and American factories received more orders for machinery as an improving economy gave companies the confidence to expand.

The USD was set for the biggest monthly gain in more than two years as reports showing a stronger U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates sooner than its peers in Europe and Japan.

The greenback rose to the strongest level in 22 months versus the euro before the European Central Bank meets Oct. 2 to discuss the region’s slumping economy. The yen approached the weakest in six years amid slowing inflation and mixed signals on the speed of pension-fund changes. Emerging-market currencies headed lower, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached the highest since 2010.

Brazil’s real is the biggest loser among the dollar’s 31 major counterparts this month as investors weighed voter support for President Dilma Rousseff in next month’s election amid a recession and inflation. The real has dropped 7.6 percent to 2.4201 per dollar, and it touched 2.4433 yesterday, the weakest since Jan. 29.

New Zealand’s dollar has tumbled 5.9 percent as central-bank Governor Graeme Wheeler called its level “unjustified,” one of policy makers’ criteria for intervention. The kiwi, nicknamed for the image of the flightless bird on the NZ$1 coin, reached 78.60 U.S. cents yesterday, the lowest level since September 2013.

The kiwi led currencies of commodity-exporting nations including the Australian dollar lower amid doubts about the sustainability of economic growth in China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

The yen fell as Health Minister Yasuhisa Shiozaki, whose ministry oversees the Government Pension Investment Fund, said pension reform would go ahead.  Shiozaki said there’s no plan to postpone a law change that would improve governance of the Government Pension Investment Fund. A review of asset allocation may see it increase riskier investments, including foreign stocks and debt.

The Bank of Japan, which meets Oct. 7, is trying to boost inflation to 2 percent by pumping 60 trillion yen ($550 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year into the economy. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Sept. 18 in Tokyo he won’t hesitate to adjust monetary policy if needed.

The Fed is considering when to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. There’s a 78 percent chance the benchmark rate target will go up by September 2015, according to fed-fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg.

So, what will happen? It appears that players used to very scared of any raising of rates by the Fed and were somehow too attached and reliant on QE measures to sustain interest in equities. However, I see a pronounced deviation from that view now. The increase in rates by Fed will actually be a lifting of a stumbling block as unemployment data looks too good to ignore. If the real economy is strengthening, one or even two rate hikes won't kill the market. Maybe the third strike.

I expect a vibrant equity market globally for the last quarter of 2014.

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So What's the Right PE?

You tell me! (Let's not talk about other valuation methods - strictly PE)

I remember when I started investing, people (or some books) used to tell - anything that is above 8x PE is considered expensive. That practice is still within some Malaysian VCs, investors where they would even look at prospective PE of 3x - 5x. Is this archaic measurement realistic?

Times change, appetite changes as well. However, if one is to look at the global interest rate trend, starting with the US Fed Funds rate - where it has come down from a high of almost 20% in 1980 during the Volcker period to now post-2008 subprime crisis where the Feds are keeping rates at almost zero, should it signify something?

Similarly, Japan has even kept rates at zero for much longer period, basically for the entire 21st century thus far (see below).

In Malaysia, I am pulling out the time (fixed) deposit rate where it has dropped from above 8% to hovering around 3.0% to 3.5% for more than 10 years now, where does one expect to put their money? - in FD still? Would one's risk appetite be higher investing into stocks, properties, even commodities etc? Surely.

If one has a higher risk appetite, due to the low deposit rates together with low financing rates from banks - would the accepted average PE generally be higher? Again surely.

If one is to look at the general trend from US to EU to Japan as well as in a period where funds are able to move freely, would you think that these funds would look at opportunities all over the world? It is much easier for some of the funds to get financed from a low interest rate country and invests their money in any investments that would get them anything that would provide between 8% to 10%, sometimes lesser - assuming currencies exchange does not change much.

So, what's the right PE? Anything that provides me higher than the 3.4% what banks is giving me, or for some bigger funds - anything higher than high quality bonds, with a little bit of buffer.

With that wouldn't you think that any business that has a good consistent growth, a PE of somewhere between 15x to 20x, be even digestible?

Or someone has a crystal ball and can see that interest rates are moving upward fast in the near future?

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What Happen to Comodities

I am not so much of a commodity person. For an investor in commodity, I have always believed that the investor has to have a much better macro picture i.e. consumption of steel in the construction industry. Another example, edible oil market i.e. comparison between sunflower vs soy vs palm oil. What are their prices per metric ton. Which are consumed more etc? These are things that I am not able to understand well.

Look at the prices of major commodities here especially over their 52 weeks price range.

Similarly, for platinum, silver there must be some use for those i.e supply and demand - or real industrial use. Over the last decade commodities were doing well.

However, these have not been so for the last one year or even more. Read the news I picked up from BusinessInsider below.
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Silver is getting crushed.

On Friday, Silver fell more than 3% to less than $18 an ounce, its lowest level in more than four years.

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FinViz

The price of gold also fell about 0.8% and touched its lowest level since January. Gold has been weak recently and is approaching a four-year low.

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FinViz

Platinum also fell to a nine-month low.

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What actually happened. These commodities are no longer used for its real purpose i.e. industrial, consumption etc. They have been pretty much speculated. Or could it be China's slowed consumption? I am pretty sure we are not worse off today as compared to four years ago globally. Although it made some sense that gold were sought after during bad times or during period of uncertainties, but what about platinum, copper or silver? Aren't they sought after for industrial purposes?

For that matter I am not really sure whether palm oil has found its low.

For a while, investors have been very speculatively positive over commodities and they seemed to have lost their fangs recently.

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Warren Buffett Tells You How to Turn $40 Into $10 Million

Warren Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time, and he has a simple solution that could help an individual turn $40 into $10 million.

A few years ago, Berkshire Hathaway CEO and Chairman Warren Buffett spoke about one of his favorite companies, Coca-Cola, and how after dividends, stock splits, and patient reinvestment, someone who bought just $40 worth of the company's stock when it went public in 1919 would now have more than $5 million.  

Yet in April 2012, when the board of directors proposed a stock split of the beloved soft-drink manufacturer, that figure was updated and the company noted that original $40 would now be worth $9.8 million. A little back-of-the-envelope math of the total return of Coke since May 2012 would mean that $9.8 million is now worth about $10.8 million.

The power of patience

I know that $40 in 1919 is very different from $40 today. However, even after factoring for inflation, it turns out to be $540 in today's money. Put differently, would you rather have an Xbox One, or almost $11 million?

But the thing is, it isn't even as though an investment in Coca-Cola was a no-brainer at that point, or in the near century since then. Sugar prices were rising. World War I had just ended a year prior. The Great Depression happened a few years later. World War II resulted in sugar rationing. And there have been countless other things over the past 100 years that would cause someone to question whether their money should be in stocks, much less one of a consumer-goods company like Coca-Cola.

The dangers of timing

Yet as Buffett has noted continually, it's terribly dangerous to attempt to time the market:

"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when" 

So often investors are told they must attempt to time the market, and begin investing when the market is on the rise, and sell when the market is falling.

This type of technical analysis of watching stock movements and buying based on how the prices fluctuate over 200-day moving averages or other seemingly arbitrary fluctuations often receives a lot of media attention, but it has been proved to simply be no better than random chance. 

Investing for the long term

Individuals need to see that investing is not like placing a wager on the 49ers to cover the spread against the Cowboys, but instead it's buying a tangible piece of a business.

It is absolutely important to understand the relative price you are paying for that business, but what isn't important is attempting to understand whether you're buying in at the "right time," as that is so often just an arbitrary imagination.

In Buffett's own words, "if you're right about the business, you'll make a lot of money," so don't bother about attempting to buy stocks based on how their stock charts have looked over the past 200 days. Instead always remember that "it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price."

http://www.fool.com/ecap/the_motley_fool/homerun-warren-buffett-tells-you-how-to-turn-40-2/?paid=7283&psource=esatab7410860090&waid=7284&wsource=esatabwdg0860078&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

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