Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

The US market cap/gdp is clearly in the overly over-valued metrics. It's now surpasses 2007 peak but still below dot.com bubble. Is the stock market going to repeat 1999/2000? Anything can happen but the billionaires are certainly not taking any chances. Found this article

A handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been drastically reducing its exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced its overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase according to a recent filing. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros has sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265#ixzz32jOfJvz1

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The art of balancing motives and making money

Achieving balance is not easy. Most of the time, we'll tend to lean more to one side. Whatever we do, there is always a motive behind it. Good or bad, there is a motive. I'm in my last semester of studies and surprisingly the module is on policy. This was an elective module which is very different from the econs and finance modules i've been taking. I have to study the motives behind the policies that the government makes and how they balance social and economic motives. It's an arts major module.

Social justice or economic prosperity?

There is always a debate of whether a government policy is for the welfare of its people or just about making money? The government cannot have too many policies for welfare but not be able to generate income in order to sustain it. The government also cannot have zero welfare policies but everything is about making money. A balance has to be achieved to win the hearts of its people.

The government has a huge responsibility in policy making. These policies change the direction of a country and impacts our lives indefinitely. Film makers who publish movies also have a responsibility in the films they produce. These films changes the mindset and culture of people and indirectly affects our lives. They can produce a movie which depicts bad moral values or they can produce a movie which lifts the moral standards of society.

Film makers for social justice or profits?

There have been numerous cultural films which won international awards at the oscar and cannes film festival. One example is the movie: "12 years a slave" which won the best picture film in the oscar awards 2014. The director dedicated this movie to those who endured slavery and the 21 million who are still suffering from slavery today. There is a good purpose to the film.

Bringing the scene one step closer to home, local home grown director Anthony Chen, won the cannes film festival Camera d'Or prize for best feature film for his movie Ilo Ilo. This is a film on the life of a typical Singaporean family who hired a Filipino maid and how the maid integrated to become part of the Singaporean family culture. It is a simple film with a heart-warming message behind it. Both of the movie directors made an impact to society and at the same time their film was recognised which created profits. This is making money with a purpose.

On the other end, we see people using unscrupulous ways to make money. They cheat, they lie and they cause harm to society. This is making money just for the sake of money.

Money and purpose

What about ourselves? Do we do business just to make money? Do we invest just to make money? What is our motive behind making money? If our motive for doing something is just for the money, then money has no purpose at all. Focus instead on creating value. Be it in business, investing or your workplace, create value which will make an impact to society. When investing, invest in the company which creates value. Even traders in the stock market have a purpose. Traders have the responsibility to balance price levels in the economy. Collectively, they can move market prices such as oil prices which will affect our lives. They reward the good companies and they punish the bad companies. That's what investors do too. They invest in good companies who are socially responsible. Well, maybe some don't and thus create imbalances in the economy.

Imagine if everyone starts to be greedy and only want to make money but not caring about how it will affect society. This behaviour is what lead to the 2008 financial/sub prime mortgage crisis. Many people had invested in what we called toxic products which the banks sold aggressively. When everything crashed, many lost their life savings.

We have a choice to make. We can strike a balance between our motives and making money. You can choose to make money with a purpose. Focus on creating value and money will come. Focus on just making money may cause great destruction not just to you but the people around you. Learn the art of balancing.

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Chinese property spree

Over the last 24 hours, there were 2 articles or news that possibly points to where the property direction is heading.

The first: Tropicana sold a piece of very prime land in Bukit Bintang to Agile Property (Chinese owned and Hong Kong listed) for RM3280 sq ft - much higher than previous book valuation in 2012. This pretty much value that area very highly, although I do not know what was valuation in an adjacent area in previous transactions. The interesting thing is that it is a Chinese company which has footprint in 40 cities in China and Agile does have property launches in Iskandar as well. This shows that there are demand coming from China nationals into buying overseas property. That was what I read happened to Australia as well - especially Perth and Melbourne.

Then another story: in US. Apparently, the last quarter, there was a huge jump in cash transactions for properties in US. This story says that interest are shown in nice holiday areas in US and much more transactions were in the form of cash (compared to before), partly to do with interest rates charged by banks have increased and many banks are quite stringent in terms of lending. The story did not mention who were the foreign buyers but I would guess that many could be Chinese (non Malaysian) and Russian.

At the same time, there is this jittery feeling among stocks investors especially on China's properties. Some of these developers - Agile Property inclusive whose bond ratings are being monitored. Their bonds issuance are no longer hot properties.

We know that there many rich ones which have cash to buy, but yet property prices are probably not holding well, and the feeling is that it can be very soft moving forward.

I am just not able to piece things together in this. Is China facing the Japan syndrome of the 1980s? When Japanese were buying properties and assets offshore while its properties at home was collapsing.

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Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits - "Scuttlebutt" method might be of value in seeking to make investments in smaller, local companies.

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is one of the classic investment texts written for the lay person. The legendary investor, Warren Buffett, has credited Philip Fisher's investment strategy as strongly influencing him.

Rather than just seeking value, as the Ben Graham school of investment taught,Fisher realized that even a greatly "undervalued" company could prove a horrible investment. Sure, you might occasionally buy a stock for less than the company's cash-in-the-bank (back then, at least!). But what if the business is horribly run? It might not take long for the company to lose all that cash!

Even if the company returns to "fair" value, that ends the potential profit from investing in such a business. Holding an average company, because it was once undervalued, but is no more, makes little sense.
Fisher points out that the largest wealth via investing has been made in one of two ways. First, buying stocks when the markets crash and holding them until the markets recover. Secondly, with less risk and more potential return, you can also just invest in a small portfolio of companies which continue to strongly grow sales and earnings over the years. Then, if the company was correctly selected, you might never have to sell, while accruing a huge return on your initial investment.

Fisher pioneered the school of growth stock investing. In Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Fisher explains how he selects a growth company. He lists fifteen points which a company must have to be considered a superior investment.

Fisher's first point seems obvious: "Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizeable increase in sales for at least several years?"

Fisher shows that some companies might have potential substantial sales increases for only a few years, but after that have limited potential due to some factor, such as market saturation. For example, Fisher mentions the growth in sales of TV's until the U.S. market was saturated.

He also wisely suggests looking behind the products to seek other superior investments. While many TV manufacturers were competitive and it was difficult to tell which was best, Fisher points out that Corning Glass Works was, by far, the company most capable of producing the glass bulbs used in TVs.

Fisher tries to clearly distinguish between companies which are "fortunate and able" and those which are "fortunate because they are able." The second kind, the superior investments, are highly innovative and create new products which have growth potential. Fisher uses Dow Chemical as one example of a "fortunate because they are able" company.

The second point wants to know if management has the drive to innovate new products. A man ahead of his time, Fisher wonders about how much of a company's future sales might come from products not yet invented.

A constant theme of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is examiningwhat the company is doing to prepare for the future. Is the company spending wisely on Research and Development? Or, is the company just trying to maximize its current profit and reinvesting nothing for future growth?

Fisher explains why answering that question is difficult in practice. What different companies account for under R&D is one problem. Another is that some companies are more successful than others at turning money spent on R&D into future marketable products. Today, we must assume this question is far more difficult to answer!

In addition to questioning a company's R&D, Fisher wants to see a company with a strong sales organization and distribution efficiency. "It is the making of a sale that is the most basic single activity of any business," he writes.

Yet, why don't investors focus upon such key factors instrumental to a company's future growth? Fisher points out that certain issues are not quantifiable. That is why many investors tend to focus upon financial issues which can be expressed in a simple ratio.

How does the investor go about answering the "unquantifiable"? How does the investor know how well-managed the company is? Or, how does one evaluate the people factors, which Fisher says are the real strength of a superior growth company?

Fisher suggests the "scuttlebutt" method. This involves talking to suppliers, customers, company employees, and people knowledgeable in the industry, and, eventually, company management. From this information, an investor can get a good feel for the quality of the company as a growth investment. Fisher teaches us how to learn to ask the correct, company-specific questions.

Fisher acknowledges the "scuttlebutt" method is a lot of work. But, he asks,should it be easy to find such great companies, when finding only a few can easily lay the foundation for building huge future wealth?

I tend to think the average individual investor will not use the "scuttlebutt" method. And, for most investors and most companies, even if the investor had the desire to use this method, it would not be practical.
The average investor will not have access to all the people with whom Fisher suggests talking. Imagine trying to use this method on a larger company with tens of thousands of employees worldwide. What is said about the company in one area may differ greatly from what is believed about the company in another region. Applying such a method to evaluate a large, innovative company, such as 3M, for example, seems utterly impossible.

Yet, for investors seeking to make investments in smaller, local companies, the "scuttlebutt" method might be of value. For angel investors or mini-venture capitalists, reading Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is probably also worthwhile. However, Fisher is quick to point out that such company evaluation is far more tenuous when the company hasn't any history behind it.

Entrepreneurs seeking to build companies should also give the book a quick read. The fifteen points are very important to company growth and success.And, encouraging these strengths from the perspective of a company's CEO trying to build the company is far easier than seeking to answer these questions from the perspective of an investor who is a company outsider!

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits also has an excellent chapter titled, "Hullabaloo About Dividends" which tells us investing in growth stocks with smaller dividend payout ratios often leads to greater total future dividends because the dividends are growing, while high-yielding stock tends to grow far less, and hence, the dividends grow far less.

The book also has some excellent thoughts about buying-and-holding a stock and when to sell a stock. Fisher's thoughts on diversification are also well worth reading, although I would recommend more diversification than Fisher claims is adequate.

Overall, this is a great book for the individual investor. You will not be able to follow the "scuttlebutt" method in practice, for most investments, and, maybe, the complexity of today's companies and scientific research in many growth companies make Fisher's method less practical today than in the past, but there is much to learn about business and investing from this book.

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Habits of Financially Successful People

Sometimes wealth comes to those who are lucky; they win the lottery or they decided to invest in Apple in 1981 when the share price was just $28.83. However, it’s far more likely their wealth came through good habits.

Wealthy people actually have a lot of the same traits and habits that enable them to persevere through difficult times and come out on top with millions (or billions) of dollars. It’s not a coincidence that the rich share these habits.

Of course, that doesn’t mean waking up early and reading more is guaranteed to make you a millionaire in 10, 20, or 30 years. However, there’s no denying the “rags to riches” story. Marketing firm NowSourcing reported that 68% of the Americans on Forbes’ Billionaires List are self-made billionaires—they didn’t inherit their fortunes.

Clearly the right habits can be a roadmap to success. Author Tom Corley interviewed 233 wealthy people and 128 poor people during a 5-year period. He found that the wealthy people had similar habits to one another and the poor people had similar habits, and there was a huge difference between the 2 groups.

The rich are definitely creatures of habit with 84% believing that good habits create opportunity and 76% believing that bad habits have a negative impact.

To-do lists
According to NowSourcing, 81% of wealthy maintain a to-do list and, more than that, they check off at least 70% of that list a day. In comparison, just 9% of people who struggle financially have a to-do list. Having goals and writing them down gives them a purpose, something to strive toward.

Don’t allow a list to overwhelm you, though. Financially successful people focus on accomplishing a specific goal at a time, and they make sure their daily actions are aligned with longer-term goals. While 80% of wealthy people focus on a specific goal, just 12% of poor people do the same.

In order to get through that list and actually accomplish what they want, successful people have learned how to manage their time effectively.

Wake up early
True, there isn’t an overwhelming majority of wealthy people who wake up early, but 44% of them get up 3-plus hours before work, which is far more than the 3% of poor people. In the hours before going to work, successful people focus on self improvement and reading educational material relating to their jobs.

Waking up early is also a common trait of the super wealthy. Many CEOs and business leaders are the type of people who wake up at 5 in the morning, read the paper, send out some emails, and fit in some time to exercise all before heading in to the office.

Keep healthy
Corley found that 70% of wealthy people ate less than 300 junk food calories each day. In comparison, 97% of poor people ate more than 300 junk food calories a day.

True, healthy foods aren’t cheap, but financially successful people try to eat healthy and stay fit because health issues can interfere with their ability to make money. Plus, staying healthy reduces medical expenses and lessens the strain on their finances.
 Three-quarters of successful people are said to exercise aerobically 4 days a week compared to 23% of people who struggle financially.

Read
Instead of relaxing in front of the TV, wealthy people gravitate toward books. Not only does 86% claim that they love to read, but 88% read at least 30 minutes each day and 63% listen to audiobooks during a commute.

According to Corley, the reading that wealthy people do is often for education or for career-related reasons. He also found that 76% read 2 or more education-related, self help-related books a month, which is something the poor don’t do.

Continue to learn
Related to their desire to read, wealthy people believe in the importance in continuing to learn throughout their lives. They put an emphasis on education, reading, and self-improvement and as a result wealthy people commonly adapt and evolve easily.

While 86% of successful people believe in lifelong educational self-improvement, just 5% of those who struggle financially agree.

Successful people stay successful because they aren’t afraid to change their minds or entertain other viewpoints. In their pursuit of knowledge, they allow what they learn to mold them. Continuous learning helps them develop new skills to keep them valuable to shareholders, clients, and consumers.
Surround themselves with other wealthy people
Wealthy people spend a lot of time around other successful people. In fact, 79% network 5 or more hours each month. They place importance on building relationships by returning phone calls, remembering personal information about the people they meet with, and, of course, networking regularly.

Successful people limit their exposure to negative people and naysayers and spend time with those who effect change and who will be a positive influence. They network to find people who can help them on their way to further success.

Even people who haven’t reached financial success should spend time with wealthy people. The best way to pick up their habits and traits is by keeping company with the people whose behaviors you want to emulate.

Do what is difficult
People with money work longer, harder, and smarter. They sacrifice today in order to reap the rewards further down the line. And they aren’t happy with the easy road. Instead, they usually make their money by finding the gaps in the market, by coming up with something no one else has before.

Furthermore, successful people are persistent. They don’t let failures keep them down, and, believe it or not, wealthy people usually have even more failures than most people. However, they learn from their mistakes. According to Inc.com, while financially successful people use their mistakes to help them succeed the next time, only 17% of the middle class can say the same.

Successful people realize that mistakes are inevitable. It’s how they react and move forward that sets them apart from the rest of us.

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