Investment Sharing 1

Never depend on single income. Make investment to create a second source.-Warren Buffet

Investment Sharing 2

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.-Benjamin Franklin

Investment Sharing 3

Anyone who is not investing now is missing a tremendous opportunity.-Carlos Sim

Investment Sharing 4

In short run, the market is a voting machine, but in long run it is a weighing machine.-Benjamin Graham

Investment Sharing 5

Dont look for needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.-Jack Bogle

Wednesday, 25 December 2013

The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time

Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.


I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.

She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income.

The reason why dividend investors are not highly publicized is because dividend investing is not sexy enough to be featured in the financial mainstream media. In addition to that, it is not profitable for Wall Street to sell you into the idea that ordinary investors can invest on their own. Compare this to mutual funds, annuities and other products which generate billions in commissions for Wall Street, despite the fact that they might not be in the best interest of small investors.

The third dividend investor is Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself. In a previous article I have outlined the reasoning behind my belief that Buffett is a closet dividend investor. He explicitly noted in his 2009 letter that "the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow". His investment in See's Candy is the best example of that.

Some of Buffett's best companies/stock that he has owned such as Geico, Coca Cola , See's Candy are exactly the types of investments mentioned above. He has mentioned that at Berkshire he tries to stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Per Buffett the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. In addition, his 2011 letter discussed his dividend income from all of Berkshire Hathaway investments, including his prediction that Coca Cola dividends will keep on increasing, based on the pattern of historical dividend increases.

In this article I outlined three dividend investors, who managed to turn small investments into cash machines that generated large amounts of dividends. They were able to accomplish this through identifying quality dividend growth companies at attractive valuations, patiently reinvesting distributions and in two out of three cases maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks. These are the lessons that all investors could profit from.

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Most valuations (even good ones) are wrong

Now this can be shocking to you if you spend a lot of time arriving at that magical number (intrinsic value) that helps you ascertain whether you must buy a stock or not.
Damodaran talks about three kinds of errors that cause most valuations – even the ones “meticulously” calculated – to go wrong:
  1. Estimation error…that occurs while converting raw information into forecasts.
  2. Firm-specific uncertainty…as the firm may do much better or worse than you expected it to perform, resulting in earnings and cash flows to be quite different from your estimates.
  3. Macro uncertainty…which can be a result of drastic shifts in the macro-economic conditions that can also impact your company.
The year 2008 is one classic example when most valuations – even the good ones – went horribly wrong owing to the last two factors – firm-specific and macro uncertainties.
As Damodaran writes…
While precision is a good measure of process in mathematics or physics, it is a poor measure of quality in valuation.
So, to value or not value?
Knowing that your valuation could be wrong (and in most cases, it would be) despite any kind of precision you employ in your calculations, it should not lead you to a refusal to value a business at all.
This makes no sense, since everyone else looking at the business faces the same uncertainty.
Instead what you must do to increase the probability of getting your valuations right is…
  1. Stay within your circle of competence and study businesses you understand. Simply exclude everything that you can’t understand in 30 minutes.
  2. Write down your initial view on the business – what you like and not like about it – even before you start your analysis. This should help you in dealing with the “I love this company” bias.
  3. Run your analysis through your investment checklist. A checklist saves life…during surgery and in investing.
  4. Avoid “analysis paralysis”. If you are looking for a lot of reasons to support your argument for the company, you are anyways suffering from the bias mentioned above.
  5. Calculate your intrinsic values using simple models, and avoid using too many input variables. In fact, use the simplest model that you can while valuing a stock. If you can value a stock with three inputs, don’t use five. Remember, less is more.
  6. Use the most important concept in value investing – ‘margin of safety’. Without this, any valuation calculation you perform will be useless.
At the end of it, Damodaran writes…
Will you be wrong sometimes? Of course, but so will everyone else. Success in investing comes not from being right but from being wrong less often than everyone else.
So don’t justify the purchase of a company just because it fits your valuation. Don’t fool yourself into believing that every cheap stock will yield good returns. A bad company is a bad investment no matter what price it is.
Charlie Munger explains that – “a piece of turd in a bowl of raisins is still a piece of turd”…and…“there is no greater fool than yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”
So, get going on valuing stocks…but when you find that the business is bad, exercise your options.
Not a call or a put option, but a “No” option.
Have you ever avoided buying a stock you “loved” because its valuations were not right? 

http://www.safalniveshak.com/avoid-2-bitter-truths-of-stock-valuations/

2 Bitter Truths of Stock Valuation

1. All valuations are biased
2. Most valuations (even good ones) are wrong

Tuesday, 10 December 2013

Pay for Retirement with a Cup of Coffee and an Egg McMuffin

Pay for Retirement with a Cup of Coffee and an Egg McMuffin
$3 a Day Can Add Up to a Serious Nest Egg

By Joshua Kennon

How many times have you swung by McDonalds on your way to work for a cup of coffee and an Egg McMuffin? It may seem like small change, but the $3 a day it is costing you to buy your breakfast can fund your retirement. Don't believe it? Let's take a look at the numbers.

The stock market has historically averaged a return of around twelve percent. If you began investing $3 a day at twenty five years old and earned the same rate of return, by the day you reached sixty-five, you would have saved a total of $381,437 before taxes. That's a pretty substantial nest egg by anyone's standards. The results are even more spectacular if you start younger (a sixteen year old would save $789,896 pretax by retirement).

Why such the drastic difference between the 16 and the 25 year old? Compounding. When you invest or save, your money earns more money in the form of interest or dividends. If you reinvest these, you earn interest on your interest. Here's how it works: You put $100 in a savings account that earns 4% annually. At the end of the first year, you earn $4 in interest. Let's say you keep that $4 in the savings account. At the end of the second year, you would earn 4% on the $104 (instead of the original $100). This would result in your interest payments higher each subsequent year as you kept reinvesting your interest.

For those of you who are thinking, "Well, I'm 30, 40, 50, or 60+ years old. What can I do?", don't worry! No matter when you start, if you are diligent and intelligent in your investing, you will end up with more money than you would have had otherwise. A fifty year old could still put aside more than $36,013 by following the three-dollar-a-day plan.

The next time you bite into that sausage egg and cheese breakfast sandwich, keep in mind you may be eating your retirement.

http://beginnersinvest.about.com/cs/retirementcenter/a/040302a.htm

Monday, 9 December 2013

Looking at Inari to understand Insas(Revised)

Anyone who puts in money in Insas over the last 4 - 5 months would have made decent sum - increase from RM0.50 to now RM0.94, which coincidentally was about the period which I wrote about the company. In this particular article, I wanted to know what makes the sudden rise in the stock price whereas it has been in trading in the RM0.40 to RM0.60 for a long time.

I wanted to know what type of character are behind the owners. As in my previous article, again not much can be known except that it is led by a careful investor, Datuk Thong. To do this, I would like to take a look again at Inari. Inari is a hugely successful invested company made by Insas and I would deem it to be successfully managed by the group of management. Insas has about 36.6% of Inari and on top of that it has about 16% of its warrants. Those holdings in Inari alone is worth about RM292 million according to Inari's price todate.

Inari Amertron is involved in EMS business. Just for knowledge, the largest EMS company in the world is Foxconn or Honhai which many people know manufactures for Apple and many other companies. To provide a simple analogy, EMS is something which some technology companies do not want to deal with as many of these companies largely concentrate on the technology aspects, hence phasing out some of the work to specialised companies like Hon Hai (for Apple). Inari is such for a company called Avago.

Avago, a spin offs from the old HP company and is hugely successful in having a large penetration supplying power amplifier chips and other technologies to most of the smartphones and tablets companies. As smart phones' penetration continues to grow, Avago as expected flies. Similarly, Inari riding on that wave as a contract manufacturer for Avago is enjoying that as well to the extent that its share price becomes one of the most successful IPO of recent times.

Inari's price chart since IPO

I know that Inari is doing well. But I wanted to probe further as I also wanted to know is there any action taken to take advantage of the over-exuberance towards the company. While Avago and Inari are performing, it is a business which I am not able to gather my thoughts or foresee over the next 5 years for example. It is a business which is largely dependent on orders and contracts. Apple's iphone and ipad, and Samsung's Galaxy or HTC's line of products may be using Avago's technology now. This things, as we know can change, which is why over the longer term it is important for Inari to not be overly dependent on Avago although it has been a very good partner.

A look at its financials can be done to sometimes ascertain that.
Based on the above numbers, it is pretty solid with good revenue and PAT growth. Against its free cash flow however, Inari does not seem to be doing that strong. I can partly understand however as one will need to invest quite substantially for it to grow as a EMS player. This I believe is warranted.
PAT and GP margin for last 9 quarters

It mentioned that its margin improved substantially due to economies of scale as provided below.
Would Inari be a good buy for the future and how about Insas? As mentioned before, Insas has some intrinsic value where as a investment company, it is doing decently well. To how much would the shareholder be providing value to its investor, that very much remains to be seen.

Inari, on the other hand would still be very dependent on Avago while Avago would be dependent on its technology for the smart phones and tablet industries. That is a lot of "IFs" I would say and looking at its share price todate, if one is to still jump in - I just have too many questions still. It is now priced at close to Globetronics market capitalisation and how it achieved this is just too strong for a EMS player.

Nevertheless, if it is able to achieve that momentum, the current traded price is still attractive.




Monday, 2 December 2013

Why Padini is the leading Malaysian fashion retailer

There is no doubt that I like retail business and I like the leading player best. Hence there is no doubt that I have bought and sold some of them - like in buying into Bonia and Wing Tai.

The thing about retailing business is that I personally felt that Malaysia is doing extremely well. I in fact like Malaysian retailing than Singapore or Bangkok or Jakarta for that matter. In Asia, besides Hong Kong, there has been some positive work done by Malaysian retailing industry and I would in fact commend the good work partly due to the government's policies for retailers.

The one player targeting the middle income group which I do get attracted to and continue to do so is Padini, so much so that I am selling Bonia and buying more Padini this time around. The latest portfolio can be found here.
Why am I calling it the leader among the Malaysian retailers? It has executed well where the other Malaysian companies have yet to really achieve. The reporting season for the quarter ended Sep 2013 is just over and although I do not want to dwell too much on the results, Padini to me has been consistently performing. It is in fact the only one which has modelled and able to achieve the hugely successful model among players like Zara, Gap, H&M, Uniqlo etc. It is successful in selling its products through its own outlet and that to me is very important as relying too heavily on retailers like AEON and Parkson would have limited its growth.

In accounts, I am just as concerned about the assets as much as the liabilities. To me, cash where how fast the business can generate cash is very important and that goes with the receivables. Through its own outlets, it is almost cash business (for credit cards transactions). The most challenging part though would be the turnover i.e. how fast is it turning the inventories to cash. Over the last 8 quarters or more, I have noticed that Padini is able to achieve that consistency, which means that it has probably been very comfortable with its strategies of maintaining a certain level of inventory while able to bring in the sales. One way of looking at that is its inventory and receivables against sales. If a company is able to find that consistencies, that's amazing.

What has been successful for Padini is however a bit of concern for Parkson as shoppers nowadays seem to get to the idea of buying from a specialized retail shop. That means, traffic is getting away from retailers such as Isetan and Parkson. That seems to happen to Parkson in its last few quarters results although I am not so sure of Isetan. AEON is slightly different though.

What about DKSH and Malaysia Airport? Malaysia's strength in the retailing business seems to benefit them as well - as there are more people transacting and more people moving around, perhaps to shop i.e. between KL, Penang or KK and any other cities. That's definitely good for those 2 companies.

My money into Keuro? Really long term thingy, and it does not seem that the West Coast Expressway project is dropping. With that, I still feel that its current price is way too low for a highway concessionaire.

Friday, 29 November 2013

Credit Card Interest Rates:What you need to know

Credit cards allow you to pay for everything you need: basic necessities like food, school materials, and gas. You don’t even have to carry money around. Just a piece of plastic and you’re all set. You can use it to pay not just for anything, but to almost anywhere in the world through online shopping.

There are some credit card owners, however, who apply for credit cards so they can buy big purchase-items such as a van, or maybe a trip to Europe, or just about any other thing that usually takes the average consumer months to save for. Of course, when you borrow money through credit card, you will be charged with interest rates by your bank.

Here is a lowdown on what you need to know about credit card interest rates:

1.     APR (Annual Percentage Rate)

This is the charge you get when you fail to pay your monthly charges in full. Not paying your credit card balance for the month will result in your balance being carried over to the next month. When this happens, you will incur interest charges for the outstanding balance you did not settle last month. The APR can rapidly increase without you realizing it when you’re not careful. To prevent APR charges in the future, make sure to pay the full amount of your credit card bills every month.

2.     Annual Charges

          Credit cards will normally require you to pay a fee for each year that you use them. Some credit card companies waive their annual fees for the first year as part of their credit card promotional offer. For these types of credit cards, you can start paying when you reach the second year of use. Annual fees can cost anything from RM38 to RM800.  

3.     Balance Transfer Charges

        Balance transfer fees will be charged to you when you want to lower the interest rate you’re paying by switching to a new credit card because the credit card you currently own charges you with high interest rates. By switching to a new card, your interest rate can temporarily be turned to zero for the first year. You will also incur balance transfer fees when you own many credit cards, and you want to simplify payments for all of them. You can then pay for your outstanding balance for all your credit cards with the use of just one credit card. Balance transfer fees can charge you a minimum transaction fee of 2% or higher, as it will be based on how much balance you want to transfer. In doing balance transfer transactions, you should remember that the outstanding balance you can transfer can be limited by the credit limit capacity of your new card.

4.     Cash Advance Charges

         When you absolutely need cash, and you have no other options available, sometimes you may be tempted to make a cash advance on your credit card. This is when you withdraw cash from your credit card account thru an ATM machine. The interest rate for these kinds of transactions is normally around 4% of the cash amount you have withdrawn. It can also charge you a fixed fee for cash advances–whichever is higher. Interest rate charges for cash advance transactions are not fixed, as these can also be based on how long it will take you to settle your cash advance loan.

5.     International Transaction Charges

-          These additional fees are charged to you when you travel abroad and use your credit card to pay for meals, rides, shopping and so forth. Call your bank before traveling to learn about the international transaction charges. International transaction charges usually amount to approximately 3% of what you pay for across the seas.

6.     Overlimit Charges

     Surpassing your credit card’s limits also comes with additional charges. Although the interest rate charge is low, it is still money wasted, so better control your spending and try not to exceed your credit limit.

7.     Underpayment Charges

-        When you pay your monthly credit card fees, make sure you are paying the minimum amount required or more than the minimum amount required. Paying less than the minimum will lead to an underpayment charge. This will be added to the regular interest rates you normally incur.
Owning a credit card comes with the responsibility of paying on time and paying beyond the minimum amount required every month. Learn about all the interest rates that come with owning a credit card such as the APR charges, annual charges, balance transfer charges, cash advance charges, international transaction charges, overlimit charges, and underpayment charges so that you can avoid paying for all these in the future.

Credit Card Interest Rates: What You Need to Know

Credit cards allow you to pay for everything you need: basic necessities like food, school materials, and gas. You don’t even have to carry money around. Just a piece of plastic and you’re all set. You can use it to pay not just for anything, but to almost anywhere in the world through online shopping.

There are some credit card owners, however, who apply for credit cards so they can buy big purchase-items such as a van, or maybe a trip to Europe, or just about any other thing that usually takes the average consumer months to save for. Of course, when you borrow money through credit card, you will be charged with interest rates by your bank.

Here is a lowdown on what you need to know about credit card interest rates:

1.     APR (Annual Percentage Rate)

This is the charge you get when you fail to pay your monthly charges in full. Not paying your credit card balance for the month will result in your balance being carried over to the next month. When this happens, you will incur interest charges for the outstanding balance you did not settle last month. The APR can rapidly increase without you realizing it when you’re not careful. To prevent APR charges in the future, make sure to pay the full amount of your credit card bills every month.

2.     Annual Charges

          Credit cards will normally require you to pay a fee for each year that you use them. Some credit card companies waive their annual fees for the first year as part of their credit card promotional offer. For these types of credit cards, you can start paying when you reach the second year of use. Annual fees can cost anything from RM38 to RM800.  

3.     Balance Transfer Charges

        Balance transfer fees will be charged to you when you want to lower the interest rate you’re paying by switching to a new credit card because the credit card you currently own charges you with high interest rates. By switching to a new card, your interest rate can temporarily be turned to zero for the first year. You will also incur balance transfer fees when you own many credit cards, and you want to simplify payments for all of them. You can then pay for your outstanding balance for all your credit cards with the use of just one credit card. Balance transfer fees can charge you a minimum transaction fee of 2% or higher, as it will be based on how much balance you want to transfer. In doing balance transfer transactions, you should remember that the outstanding balance you can transfer can be limited by the credit limit capacity of your new card.

4.     Cash Advance Charges

         When you absolutely need cash, and you have no other options available, sometimes you may be tempted to make a cash advance on your credit card. This is when you withdraw cash from your credit card account thru an ATM machine. The interest rate for these kinds of transactions is normally around 4% of the cash amount you have withdrawn. It can also charge you a fixed fee for cash advances–whichever is higher. Interest rate charges for cash advance transactions are not fixed, as these can also be based on how long it will take you to settle your cash advance loan.

5.     International Transaction Charges

-          These additional fees are charged to you when you travel abroad and use your credit card to pay for meals, rides, shopping and so forth. Call your bank before traveling to learn about the international transaction charges. International transaction charges usually amount to approximately 3% of what you pay for across the seas.

6.     Overlimit Charges

     Surpassing your credit card’s limits also comes with additional charges. Although the interest rate charge is low, it is still money wasted, so better control your spending and try not to exceed your credit limit.

7.     Underpayment Charges

-        When you pay your monthly credit card fees, make sure you are paying the minimum amount required or more than the minimum amount required. Paying less than the minimum will lead to an underpayment charge. This will be added to the regular interest rates you normally incur.
Owning a credit card comes with the responsibility of paying on time and paying beyond the minimum amount required every month. Learn about all the interest rates that come with owning a credit card such as the APR charges, annual charges, balance transfer charges, cash advance charges, international transaction charges, overlimit charges, and underpayment charges so that you can avoid paying for all these in the future.

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

Budget 2014: Up to 61% tax incentives for youths through PRS

Now, I know Budget 2014 is almost 2 weeks ago but I am surprised no one really puts this into perspective.

In fact, many are unaware of this very fact because GST and removal of sugar subsidy stole the limelight.

I am referring to the RM 500 one off incentive (read: almost like cold hard cash) to Private Retirement Scheme  (PRS) contributors with minimum cumulative investment of RM 1,000 - to be implemented from Jan 2014 onwards for a period of five years.

Let me explain.

If you are in the mid to late twenties, chances are that your annual chargeable income falls in the range of RM 35,001 to RM 50,000. The tax bracket for this income group is 11 percent..

That means, your actuals monetary savings for any tax relief eligible to you is 11 percent of the tax relief amount itself.

If you invest RM 1,000 into any of the funds by any PRS fund providers, you get RM 110 worth of tax savings.

With this tax savings of RM 110 and the RM 500 incentive, you are getting RM 610 of tax incentives.

But then it gets even better.

Most of the tax reliefs are “expenses type”, which means you need to spend money to get the tax savings. Things like computer purchase, insurance premiums, etc.

But this PRS contribution is one of the few “savings type”  tax relief. Just like when you invest in any unit trusts or shares, your investment may grow over time.

If you visit Private Pension Administrator (abbreviated PPA - the central administrator for PRS) website now athttp://www.ppa.my, and check under Providers > PRS Funds Information > Daily Fund Prices, you can see the investment returns of all PRS funds from all providers.

One of the top performing funds yielded a year-to-date return of slightly more than 18% in just under a year.

Although past performance is not an indicator of future performance, if this performance continues, you are essentially getting RM 180 return out of the RM 1,000 you invested.

Add this up with RM 610 we calculated earlier, you are getting up to RM 790.

That’s 79% return.

Not many stocks could give you a minimum 61% return and up to 79% return within a year.

As an independent financial adviser, I can tell you wealth accumulation is not just about investing. We should always adopt a more holistic approach - this is a very good example of tax savings which indirectly translates into surplus. You could treat this as your investment return which is guaranteed.

Every single savings count. The wealthy mind their money, and they say - “if you don’t take care  of your money, money won’t take care of you”

Even if you don’t qualify for individual BR1M handouts, grab this opportunity highlighted above starting 2014.

Thursday, 31 October 2013

The Value of Patience

Price-value gap

Theoretically, with higher trading volumes, the price-value gap should narrowdue to better price discovery.   Yet, in reality, this is not the case. 

The increase in trading activity actually widen the price-value gap; often increasing the noise in the system and leading to spikes in volatility that we see often in the stock market. 

An explanation, which is not surprising, is the majority of market participants are speculators and not investors.  

Rather than narrowing the price-value gap through better price discovery, theexact opposite is the result.


What can you do as an investor?

In this world, an investor who is hostage to short-term performance pressures will feel nothing but discontent. 

The only requirement for successful play is the willingness to adopt a different set of rules.  

Of these, none is more important than the value of patience.


Let's learn from Buffett:  Having a patient attitude to investing

Time and patience, two sides of the same coin - that is the essence of Buffett. 

His success lies in the patient attitude he quietly maintains toward both Berkshire's wholly owned business es and the common stocks held in the portfolio. 

In this high-paced world of constant activity, Buffett purposefully operates at a slower speed.



Learning points

A detached observer might think this sloth-like attitude means forgoing easy profits, but those who have come to appreciate the process areaccumulating mountains of wealth.  

The speculator has no patience. 

The investors lives for it. 

The best thing about time is its length.

Saturday, 26 October 2013

Four Steps to Prepare for a Crash

But for the sake of argument, let’s pretend that Time’s cover is wildly bullish and did send a legitimate bear signal to the world. Or maybe tapering will sink stocks. 

What would be the proper course of action for investors in a bear market? 


1. Understand your time horizon 

If you invested 10 years ago for an event this year, you might seriously consider selling your stocks and converting them to cash — but that’s regardless of where you think the market is going. If you need the money in the short term, it doesn’t belong in the market. If you have longer than a few years to invest, don’t worry about a crash as long as you… 

2. Make sure your stops are in place 

The Oxford Club recommends a 25% trailing stop loss. The stops protect gains as stocks rise and ensure that no single position results in a devastating loss. Since stocks are up so much over the past four years, even if you do get stopped out, you should get out with a profit. This strategy also ensures that you have plenty of cash to get back into the market at lower prices. During the financial crisis, Oxford Club Members were stopped out of positions in 2008 and took profits on many stocks that had risen during the previous bull. That freed up capital to get back in during the lows of 2008 and 2009, resulting in some huge winners, including Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), up 255%, and Diageo (NYSE: DEO), up 171%. 

3. Review your portfolio 

If you haven’t done so in a while, take a look at the stocks in your portfolio. Make sure the companies are still operating at a high level. If you own Perpetual Dividend Raisers — stocks that raise their dividend every year — examine when the company last raised its dividend. If the company is continuing its streak of annual dividend raises, generally speaking, you should be fine for the long term. 

4. Be ready to buy when things are bleak 

It takes a lot of guts to buy stocks when it feels like the market is falling apart, but that’s how the biggest gains are made. Whether you’ve raised capital by selling stocks whose stops were hit, or you have money set aside, buy stocks after a market slide. You might not catch the bottom, but since stocks go up over the long haul, getting them at a discount will add significantly to your returns. Regardless of the predictability of the magazine cover theory or any other signal, long-term investors should not get caught up in the day-to-day market noise. You will make money as long as you don’t panic in the face of a sell-off. 

Saturday, 19 October 2013

Nine lessons to learn from Seth Klarman

SO WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT HOW KLARMAN INVESTS? HERE ARE SOME INSIGHTS INTO HIS APPROACH.

What’s your advantage over others? 

The investment markets are crowded. Thousands of professional investors spend their days trying to find the next big thing, but they can’t all win. In order to get ahead you need to do something or know something that others don’t. This is not easy. Are you really smarter than the crowd?

Buy what others are selling

Going against the crowd can be profitable. People often sell assets due to temporary, short-term factors. This offers opportunities for investors who can take a longer view. Examples of such situations are litigation, fraud, financial distress and ejection from an index.

Go where others don’t

Following on from the above two points, it makes logical sense that you are unlikely to make a lot of money buying FTSE 100 shares, as professional investors follow them too closely. Look at lots of different asset classes. For example:
• Opportunities often exist in ‘spin offs’ – smaller businesses sold by bigger companies. Professional investors often sell holdings in these companies because they are too small and this temporarily depresses their value, spelling a buying opportunity.
• Research bonds in bankrupt companies: often these bonds sell for a fraction of what they are worth. If the company is turned around, investors can make massive gains. There are often similar opportunities in distressed property.
• Don’t confine yourself to domestic markets. Foreign markets are often less crowded and can be subject to levels of political and regulatory uncertainty that present opportunities. In the preface to the sixth edition of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s book, Security Analysis’, Klarman uses the example of South Korea in the early 2000s where investor pessimism saw multinational companies selling for as low as one or two times their annual cash flow. Smart investors made a killing buying these stocks.

Focus on risk before you start thinking about returns 

Research shows the pain of losing 50% of your money far outweighs the pleasure to be had from making a 50% return. To be successful as an investor you must focus your research on the risks of a company’s business model and its industry. Remember that the first rule of investment is not to lose money. Also remember – and this is particularly pertinent to technology companies – that today’s good business may not be tomorrow’s winner (see my colleague Tim Bennett’s points on the importance of economic moats for more on this).

You are buying a stake in a business, not a piece of paper 

Investment success comes from buying the cash flows of businesses for less than they are worth. These cash flows come from the real world, not punting numbers on a computer screen. So focus on free cash flow rather than profits. And look at balance sheets to see risks like too much debt or big pension fund liabilities.

Know when to sell

Value investors start selling when assets are 10-20% below what they think they are worth. Owning fully valued assets is a form of speculation – you are betting on someone paying more than they are worth, not on the market recognising the true value of the assets.

Don’t invest with borrowed money 

The ability to sleep well at night is more important than a few more percentage gains.

Don’t rely on the market to provide your investment returns 

If bond coupons or stock dividends (paid out by companies) can provide a large chunk of your returns, you are less reliant on fickle and volatile markets for capital gains. Buying bonds below their redemption value is another good strategy.

Don’t be afraid to do nothing

Always hold cash when cheap assets are scarce. Be prepared to wait.